What approach is advised regarding recent history when assessing threats?

The recommended approach to assessing threats emphasizes the importance of being cautious with recent history when making evaluations. This perspective acknowledges that while recent changes and events can provide valuable insights, they may also be influenced by transitory factors or anomalies that do not accurately reflect underlying trends or long-term patterns.

Using recent history as a primary indicator can lead to misinterpretations or overreactions based on temporary fluctuations. For effective threat assessment, it's crucial to contextualize recent data within a broader historical framework, allowing analysts to discern if recent patterns are part of a significant shift or merely short-lived occurrences. By avoiding the over-reliance on recent history, assessors can create a more balanced and comprehensive picture of potential threats, leveraging historical data to provide context and validity to their evaluations.